By ADAM TELLES DE MORAES.
Chief Editor and writer of the Praxistas Blog:
Starting another series of brief articles about the current turbulent international geopolitical scenario we are experiencing, we begin our analyzes with a Hot Spot potentially considered as a trigger for a possible conflict on a global scale, of which many analysts (and fans...) They believe it is no longer a question of "if", but "when" it will happen.
In this sense, we have two potentials in the Islamic world, which sponsor different initiatives, both from a current political, economic and even religious point of view, despite having the same Abrahamic biblical origin in Ishmael and Hagar.
We are talking about a possible conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which we will talk about below.
Key considerations about Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabia's rich history spans millennia, intertwining with the rise and fall of empires, the flourishing of cultures, and the discovery of a resource that would shape its destiny: oil.
Origins and First Unifications:
-Arabian Peninsula: The region we now know as Saudi Arabia was inhabited by several nomadic tribes and civilizations over the centuries, including the Lihyan and Nabataean kingdoms.
-Islam and Hegemony: The arrival of Islam in the 7th century AD unified the tribes under a common faith and gave rise to the first Islamic caliphate. Centuries later, the Ottoman Empire dominated the region until the beginning of the 20th century.
Emergence of Modern Saudi Arabia:
-Unification under the House of Saud: In 1744, the Al Saud dynasty established the First Saudi State, which was later conquered by the Ottomans. In 1902, under the leadership of Abdul Aziz bin Saud, the Al Saud family began the reconquest of the region, culminating in the creation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932.
- Oil and Prosperity: The discovery of oil in 1933 boosted the country's economy, transforming it into an important player on the global stage. Oil income financed the modernization of infrastructure, education and health, raising the population's standard of living.
Current Scenario: Economy, Politics and International Relations:
---Oil Giant: Saudi Arabia is the largest oil exporter in the world, and its economy depends heavily on the energy sector. The government has been diversifying the economy, investing in sectors such as tourism, technology and manufacturing.
---Vision 2030: The ambitious "Vision 2030" plan aims to reduce dependence on oil, promote economic diversification and create a more prosperous and sustainable society.
---Absolute Monarchy: Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy led by King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. The king holds broad powers, including appointing the government and formulating policy.
---Reforms and Opening: The Saudi government has been implementing gradual reforms, expanding women's rights and promoting social openness. However, issues such as freedom of expression and human rights still generate criticism from international organizations.
-Regional Influence: Saudi Arabia exerts significant influence in the Middle East and the Islamic world. It is a founding member of OPEC and the Arab League, and acts as a mediator in regional conflicts.
-Allies and Partnerships: The United States is Saudi Arabia's main ally, with close ties in areas such as security and trade. The kingdom also maintains partnerships with European countries,Asia and other regions.
-Challenges and Tensions: Saudi Arabia faces challenges such as the civil war in Yemen, rivalry with Iran and growing demands for political and social reform.
Initial conclusion about the Saudi nation:
Saudi Arabia is a country with a rich and complex history, marked by moments of great prosperity and geopolitical challenges.
The nation finds itself in a moment of transition, seeking to diversify its economy, promote social reforms and strengthen its position on the international stage.
The country's future will depend on the ability to reconcile tradition and modernity, responding to internal and external demands in a balanced and sustainable way.
Key considerations about Iran:
Iran, once known as Persia, boasts a rich history that is intertwined with ancient civilizations, powerful empires and geopolitical upheavals.
Its vibrant culture, stunning landscapes and abundant natural resources have shaped the country over the centuries, making it a crucial player on the global stage.
-Ancient Roots: The origins of Iran date back millennia, with Islamic civilizations flourishing around 3,200 BC. The Achaemenid Persian Empire (550-330 BC) stood out for its grandeur, covering vast territories and profoundly influencing the culture and trade of the time .
-Achaemenid Persian Empire - Conquests and Dynasties: Alexander the Great conquered the Persian Empire in 330 BC, beginning a period of Hellenization. Several dynasties rose and fell in the following centuries, including the Parthians, Sasanians and Safavids.
-Modern Era and Islamic Revolution: The Qajar Dynasty dominated Iran in the 19th century, but declined under internal and external pressure. In 1925, Reza Pahlavi established an absolute monarchy, modernizing the country and secularizing society. The Islamic Revolution of 1979 overthrew the Shah and established the Islamic Republic, led by Ayatollah Khomeini.
-Iran's Islamic Revolution: The Islamic Republic is based on the principles of Shia Islam, with the Supreme Leader as the highest authority. The country faces challenges such as international sanctions, regional instability and debates on human rights and democracy.
-Oil Wealth: Iran has vast reserves of oil and natural gas, which support much of the economy. The export of hydrocarbons generates revenue to finance the government and drive development.
-Challenges and Diversification: International sanctions imposed on Iran's nuclear program have limited the country's access to global financial markets, affecting the economy. The government seeks to diversify the economy, investing in other sectors such as agriculture, industry and manufacturing.
-Potential for Growth: Despite the challenges, Iran has great economic potential due to its young population, qualified workforce and strategic location. Structural reforms and greater openness to international trade can boost growth and prosperity.
-Political System: The Islamic Republic of Iran is a theocracy with a complex political system. The Supreme Leader, currently Ayatollah Khamenei, holds supreme power and oversees key decisions. The President is elected by popular vote, but his power is limited.
-Political Factions: The Iranian political landscape is marked by different factions with divergent views on issues such as foreign policy, economics and the role of religion in society. Political debate is frequent and election results can influence the direction of the country.
-International Relations: Iran's relations with the international community are complex, marked by tensions with the United States and its allies due to its nuclear program and other issues. The country is also involved in regional issues, such as the conflict in Syria and the civil war in Yemen.
Initial conclusion about the Persian nation:
Iran is a country with a rich history, developing economy and complex political landscape. Despite the challenges, the country also presents great potential for the future.
Understanding its history, economy and politics is crucial to understanding its role on the global stage and prospects for the future.
Possible current conflict - a "World War 3"?
While a direct conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran could increase global tensions and lead to broader involvement by other powers, the likelihood of triggering a Third World War is considered "low."
Factors that limit this risk:
-Interests of International Powers: Countries such as the USA and China have strong interests in the region, mainly related to oil, and will likely intervene to avoid a large-scale conflict that could destabilize the global market.
-Weapons of Mass Destruction: Both countries are signatories to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and are unlikely to use them, even in a scenario of total war, due to the serious consequences that such an act would entail.
-Humanitarian Consequences: The devastation caused by a large-scale conflict in the Middle East would be immense, which would pressure world leaders to seek diplomatic solutions.
However, the possibility of a major regional conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran should not be ruled out. Tensions between the two countries are deep and complex, and any miscalculation or triggering event could lead to a conflict with devastating consequences for the entire region and the world.
Possible final conclusion:
It is crucial that the international community continues to work actively to promote dialogue and diplomacy between Saudi Arabia and Iran in order to avoid a conflict that would have catastrophic repercussions.
